UFC London: Blaydes vs Aspinall Last Minute Quick Picks

We're back after a long hiatus, getting ready for a new podcast format, but couldn't miss this card!

It's been a while since we last handicapped a fight, but we're back for a special quick picks edition for this awesome UFC fight night in London, featuring some truly great matchups including Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt, JSP vs Mahkwan Amirkhani, Paul Craig vs “No Time”, Ludoveit Klein vs Mason Jones, Charles Rosa vs Nathaniel Wood, the return of Alex the Great vs the Miner, a late replacement Chris Curtis (cornered by OG booking / Scouser Darren Till) vs the Joker, and of course Curtis “Razor” Blaydes vs Tom “Curtis is my worst matchup” Aspinall. There’s several more great fights I just don't have time to mention on the card as well, it's truly a stacked affair from front to back almost guaranteed to entertain throughout.

So with that ridiculous hype, and possibly the best back to back fight night cards ever being a real possibility leading up to this stacked London card, let's get to the rapid fire Best Bets before the octagon door closes for the first fight in less than 3 hrs:

Chris Curtis -115 straight over Jack Hermansson

• Chris has shown great takedown defense and a relentless drive in recent fights, and while Jack is a step above Rodolfo Viera in terms of wrestling technique and mixing things up, the length has me more concerned than anything. That said, Jack is definitely a dept at winning 3 rd decisions with control, pace and a great mix of techniques, but my gut is learning towards Curtis flowing and punishing Jack's entries enough to slow his shots and earn a decision, if not a potential TKO, though Jack's durability and fight IQ make that unlikely. This is a risky one and the short notice makes it even tougher, plus honestly the odds should be at least +150 to +200 for Curtis. That said, my degenerate side is feeling this pick, so lay off on Jack and go straight on Chris, with a potential bonus double down on a decision. Jack could snatch a sub, most likely a leg lock, but I'm still learning towards a decision being his best bet as well, especially as much as the Action Man has been feeling himself lately. My advice is probably not to listen to me on this one as the numbers don’t favor my analysis, but there you go, this game is crazy.

Volkan Oezdemir -150 straight 50%, Paul Craig by Submission 2nd rd +800 25%, Sub 3rd rd +1400 25%

• Volkan is solid early and while being dry could lead to a sub in the first for Craig, I'll lean on Volkan to get out of the round based on his danger to Craig, though the Bearjew is a wildcard who often throws caution to the wind and brawls early to find a scramble and sub opp. Just ask Sweet Dreams about it. That said the value in the odds and likely outcome a favor a later finish, when Oezdemir's defense will be more porous due to fatigue. See 2nd and 3rd rd subs to DC and Lionheart. Paul is craftier on the ground than both and could imanari roll his way to a leg early, but doesn't have the stand up chops of either of the previous opponents that were ready to put Volkan to sleep. That said, he should fully KO Craig, but again as the fight drags on it starts to favor Craig more and more. Plus, we still don't know how Volkan's durability will hold up after recently wars, but the Ankalaev fight was a good look relatively.

Jai Herbert -130 ITD vs Kyle Nelson

• This feels like the perfect matchup for a Herbert KO. Nelson is a tough dude, and he's gonna need to wrestle to overcome a big speed and reach disadvantage, while both have had some rough times in the octagon, Herbert's looked better overall against rougher competition. This should be another showcase opportunity for him if he can take advantage.

Curtis Blaydes by dec +400 60%, Tom Aspinall ITD +100 40%

• The longer this fight goes the more likely Curtis is to get KO'd. Aspinall probably to active on bottom to get finished with his guard unless he takes a big shot on the feet first, and the decision line for Curtis is too juicy. Think Volkov fight for Blaydes blueprint but with more explosive danger on the counter.

That's all for this morning folks, get your bets in, tune in for some great fights, and win big as always!