UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Spann & Bellator 266 Best Bets
Lots of great action to pull from tonight on two solid cards!
We're back for a packed Saturday of MMA action after a bit of a break filled with the Triller freakshow last weekend! Don't miss any of the action today with the UFC undercard starting now and the Bellator card coming up at 4pm PT. Lets get right to it with some quick picks from the UFC card followed by best bets for the Bellator card:
Antonio Arroyo vs Joaquin Buckley
This is an interesting fight, should be a war, with the much taller Arroyo leaning on his kicks and trying to maintain range and sap the energy from Buckley while Joaquin will be looking to move forward shimmy and get inside to land his hooks and power combos. I think Arroyo may have a tough time if Buckley decides to mix in some wrestling, as we've seen him give up bottom position to attempt subs or simply because he leaves his hips vulnerable after throwing repeated naked rear kicks. I expect him to do the same, but against an extremely susceptible opponent in Buckley, and I suspect we could see a similar finish to the head kick that Di Chirico landed on him, but Arroyo is more likely to attack the body, and doesn't really have that type of finish on his record to date, but the height differential and the clash of styles makes me think that strike will be open for the taking. That said, if Arroyo can't get the finish, either with the kicks or snatching a sub off his takedown D, I expect Buckley’s cardio to last longer and if he can mix in some top control along with his forward pressure style he'll be the more likely of the two to win over the judges on the cards. If Buckley gets a finish its likely late in the fight, possibly the second half of round two or the 3rd. Cover on that possibility. Arroyo likely gets an earlier finish but 2nd rd is what I'm feeling.
60% Arroyo ITD +225, 40% Buckley by decision +450. Cover Buckley KO rd 3 +1000, hedge over 1.5 rds -130, Arroyo 2nd rd finish +800
Devin Clark vs Ion Cutelaba
I'm not even going to take the time to go into this one. Either Cutelaba smashes Clark in the first 2 rds (rd 1 +160 - 50%, rd 2 +450 - 30%) or Clark controls and wins a decision (+235 - 20%).
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann
Another quick pick here — Spann has the power striking to finish anyone but really isn't super well versed at picking shots at a high level, and Lionheart should be able to exploit him on the feet if he can avoid the big shot and keep it on the feet. Spann is large, powerful, and explosive, and could play a game plan similat to Rakic’s en route to a smothering 5 rd decision. I just don't think he will be comfortable on the feet for long enough nor savvy enough to avoid all danger from Smith’s active guard to avoid a finish. There's an equal chance we see Smith play a smart distance striking game plan for 5 rds and not press too much, or have to deal with some wrestling and burns clock and stamina, and comes away with a decision. I'll give each of those possibilities a 15% chance of happening, so cover there, but bank on Smith showing up tonight and using his experience and striking skills to rough up Spann until a bad shot or a reactive shot from Smith leads to the tap.
Smith by Sub +300 (50%) Smith by KO/TKO +225 (20%), Smith by Dec (15%) +350, Spann by decision (15%) +650
Bellator 266 (4pm PT YouTube, 7pm PT Showtime)
Mark Lemminger vs Neiman Gracie
Lemminger is super tough, well rounded, and hard to finish. He doesn't shine in any one spot but I feel his toughness, stand up comfort, and willingness to trade could cause problems for Neiman in this current slump of his. In his last two losses I've felt that he's lost a bit of confidence in his own stand up skills and has been a bit less willing to exchange, compared to his bout with Ed Ruth where he let combo after combo fly. If he can get back to that rhythm he likely finds his way to top position and gets himself another submission, or at worst controls the action for a decision. If he gets his confidence broken on the feet it could be a long night and a decision for Lemminger, but I don't give that more than a 20% chance.
Gracie by Submission 60% +100, Gracie by decision 20% +210, Lemminger by decision 20% +450
Yoel Romero vs Phil Davis
I wish it made sense to spend more time on this one. If Yoel can't find a finish Phil will control distance and action and probably outwrestle Yoel for the decision. There's a chance that Phil gets the finish as well but I believe a lot in the super Cuban’s toughness.
Davis by decision 80% +130, Romero ITD +210 20%
That's all for tonight folks. Tune in now and don't miss any of the great fights today, get your bets in ASAP, and as always, win big degenerates! We’ll see you all next week with much fatter bankrolls.
Welp Neiman definitely got his striking confidence back and let his hands go to the tune of a TKO stoppage win, I believe his first as a pro! Huge for Neiman he's back in the hunt now
Hope y'all took my cover pick on the Buckley fight he just closed the show in a close fight TKO rd 3 after eating some big damage throughout the fight +1000 cashed!