UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs Dumont Best Bets!
A truncated card that lost a bit of its luster still has a couple locks...
We're back degenerates! Back in the saddle for another week of action, unfortunately on a card that lost several solid matchups, and now is the Frankenstein 10 fight affair headlined by (bloated 135er) Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont in a featherweight affair. For this short card we've got a short list of picks, as a couple of our best bets fell out in the last 24 hrs (looking at you Cuban Missile Crisis — hope all is well!). So let's get to it!
Andre Arlovski vs Carlos Felipe
Felipe is going to be coming in significantly heavier than the Pitbull for this fight, so expect it to be more or less Arlovski’s movement and timing vs power shots coming from Felipe. Felipe is deceptively fast with the hands for his size, but even so I imagine Arlovski will be the tighter sharper kickboxer. While Felipe has a puncher’s chance here in my estimation, Arlovski has only slipped up against top tier (read top 10) heavyweights pretty much ever.
I don't see Felipe on that level, and once again the disrespect for the Belarusian legend from the matchmakers has me licking my lips at this -110 pick em’ line. Go heavy my fellow degens, and if you're feeling froggy double down on the decision line at +140 — Andre hasn't closed the show in the octagon since Hapa felt the thunder in 2015.
Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont
This fight is tailor made for Ladd to get back on track. My concern is the two year layoff and the related knee injuries, plus the fact that Ladd just came off a scale miss, didn't look great on that scale, and didn't get to fight as Macy Chiasson declined to take the purse fine and let the bout proceed. That said, she missed by 1lb, and she didn't have to cut the same for this one, and made it comfortably. Cutting still has an effect on your body though, just ask Tony Ferguson, and the concern here lies in that she's no longer in peak fight condition and out of the timing of her camp, which ended up extended. That aside, she's very close in size to Dumont, and she's a much busier more tenacious fighter. The pace and pressure should pay off, and I doubt Dumont will find a finish. Norma is the more technical striker here, at least all around as Ladd has some solid boxing, and has a good style for Ladd as a counterfighter, however, I don't think she likes high paced affairs and constant pressure in her face. She may end up being the stronger of the two as well, but the nonstop work from Ladd I expect will wear her down steadily. I'd generally say if you're looking for a prop here bet the ITD, but I don't really like it for Ladd at +165, but worth considering.
I recommend taking the -130 line staight up and packaging it with the Arlovski -110 straight line for a solid +238 parlay. Small cover on Dumont by decision +240 (I wouldn't shade over 30% unless you're really worried about ring rust)
Consider 3rd and 4th round finish lines for Ladd — big upside there at +1100 and +1600 respectively. I'll be throwing a bit there and parlaying those with Arlovski straight as well.
That's all for this week folks. As always, get your bets in, win big, and we'll see you here next week for UFC 267 with a much fatter bankroll!
Aspen finally gets on top and the old her comes out at the end of the round. She had a path to victory but she needs to sell out for it now.
Dumont still winning but if Ladd had brought this pressure since round 1 it would be a completely different contest. She's starting to get back to herself and her corner is on her ass hard she's gotta get a finish and she's being told so