UFC Best Bets: Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan

UFC on ESPN 52 best bets for a volatile night of fights, but the best fight night card in a while!

Welcome back degenerates! We're back for a special fight night card, a treat for the fans from Dana and co in time for the holidays, a small reprieve from the usual price to value gouging that's been going on lately (see our recent post on the subject).

Whatever the reason for the newly minted TKO group’s generosity, we’re in for a fun night of fights with just a few lower caliber pairings, but lots of volatility (and potential for upside) across a competitive card. Keep that in mind as you decide your exposure for the event, were likely in for a roller coaster on this one. Buckle up folks, this could get bumpy.

As we've done recently with our new format, our full picks, analysis, and bet sizing recommendations will be available on our Bet MMA Tips handicapper profile here. Please follow our profile to track our performance and get detailed bet sizing insights along with each pick, as well as prop and parlay recommendations.

With that dispensed, let's get into this weeks best upset lines:

+225 Beneil Dariush to win straight up vs Arman Tsarukyan

• Beneil unfairly dogged here. I do think this is a close fight and could go either way.

• Beneil is a better grappler, and a better striker, and getting dogged for getting dismantled by Do Bronx.

• Arman isn't Do Bronx, and Beneil as long as he keeps his chin intact early should be able to control the pace, and potentially find a finish, or stay ahead enough to win a decision (may go in on that prop as well).

• If you're going for a conservative play, the over 2.5 at -200 is very solid. A good anchor bet for the card if you're not comfortable with any straight picks — locks are hard to come by this week, which should make for some fun fights.

+100 Kelvin Gastelum to win straight up vs Sean Brady

• Love Gastelum at these odds at 170. He was a tough out while wildly undersized at 185, people forget what kind of trouble he can give 170ers.

• Big experience difference here, with these odds, lots of value in this pick. I don't see Brady's grappling to be so good as to completely thwart Gastelum’s counter wrestling, and Kelvin’s footwork and awareness often keeps him in his preferred area for the fight.

• Kelvin’s got better hands than Brady. All the value here, and I might anchor on an over 1.5 or 2.5 in case a close decision drowns him.

That's all for this week folks! For full picks on this card including favorites, props, and parlays, follow us on Bet MMA Tips.