UFC 268 Best Bets
We're back for a banger!!!
After a much too long hiatus, we're finally back for one of ths biggest cards of all time after the crazy unprecedented FREE (sort of?) PPV blockbuster quality card last weekend! Let's get right into some of the packed action on this mouth-watering card, much of which we'll run through in rapid fire fashion:
Dustin Jacoby -400 vs John Allen +300
I love Jacoby in this fight but hate the straight and ITD line. While I admit John is very hittable and Dustin is by far the best striker he'll have faced in the octagon, he's fought some legit competition throughout his career and never been stopped by strikes, and just happens to train at a little gym in Curitiba called Chute Box. The guy knows how to bang. I definitely think Dustin can get a stoppage, but Allen is tough as nails and also has weapons to put Jacoby in trouble everywhere. If he mixes up reactive shots on Dustin's combos or finds a way to get to the back or snatch a limb, it could end up being a much more dangerous night for Dustin than the line belies. Don't shy away from this live dog, and while I'm feeling like he's most likely to get the finish in the first two the odds require us to bank on the late rounds and decision and spread a bit thin on the first. These are all going to pad up our parlays as there's no high value single available here.
Jacoby 30% by Dec +205 10% Rd 1 +215 15% rd 2 +400 15% rd 3 +750
Nassourdine Imavov -120 vs Edmen Shabazian +100
I really really wanted to take Edmen straight up in this one as his ceiling is so high and his competition so stiff in comparison to his opposition but the more I think about it the more I feel like he doesn't know how to win a high level fight except by KO. Imavov is likely outmatched on the feet but more well versed all around and on the ground, and a crafty fighter, who has never been finished by strikes… Lay off slightly on Edmen by technical striking decision if his counter wrestling holds up and you're the faint of heart. For everyone else get the lines below into your parlays.
Edmen 1st rd +450 20% 2nd rd +700 20%, Imavov 2nd rd +600 10%, 3rd rd +850 20%, by Dec +305 30%
Phil Hawes vs Chris Curtis
Curtis is a LIVE dog in this one, but it's a tailor made matchup for the young impressive prospect Hawes if Curtis hasn't greatly improved his counter wrestling. Hawes is set to test it, and has power in everything. Curtis has been finished quick before but I'm banking on that being the less likely possibility here and going against the oddsmakers in doing so. If not it will be a bit of a wash as we're packaging these in parlays anyway, but if we beat the house here it'll turn into a nice multiplier. So keep your fingers crossed that Hawes doesn't pull his best Ray Cooper impression tonight, he's definitely capable.
Curtis 20% ITD +385 10% by Dec +600, Hawes by Dec +215 60%, 10% ITD -110
Bobby Green vs Al Iaquinta
The line on Bobby by decision is terrible, and I know Al doesn't get finished by strikes but don't forget King knows how to do it all. If Al isn't on his game he gets touched up on the feet en route to a likely decision as he's so tough and Bobby is so Measured, but don't be afraid of the ITD like as I see a club and sub possibility and that's where the value is.
If Al's on his wrestling is superior and he'll know how to frustrate Bobby en route to a controlling decision.
I'm split on this fight and treating it as such 50/50, with the potential spoiler being Al’s wrestling & overhand being the KO kyrptonite to Bobbys hands down duck and roll style. But I'm not betting on that…
Al by decision +275 50%, Bobby by decision -140 25%, ITD +550 25%
Marlon Vera vs Frankie Edgar
I could be very wrong here but I see this going one of two ways: either Frankie wrestles to a decision or Marlon gets the finish. I'm a bit split here but my biased Toms River loving ass is leaning too far towards the wrong coast. 70% Frankie by Dec +185, 30% Marlon ITD +200
If you want to avoid a more complex algorithmic approaxh and want a simpler deployment for your bets, try the following, assuming $100 event bankroll for easy bet size scaling:
+538 Parlay $30
+372 parlay $25
+933 parlay $15
+1295 parlay $30
That should be a simple plug and play formula to follow this week which is not quite as nuanced as the strategy described in this weeks main picks. That said, while I think the additional risk exposure for this model is tolerable, downside risk is greater and potential upside is limited as well.
That's all for this week folks, get your bests in, tune in for this amazing PPV card, and as always, win big degenerates!
