We're back in truncated fashion for this week's mega-card! It's fitting that for one of the best fight cards of the year, we'll have one of the shortest analysis ever. Two factors are playing into this: 1) I'm fanboying out too hard to focus on this card (beware my 209 bias, my home county shares a border with Stockton’s) and 2) this card has some rough lines and outside of some potential big upsets has either very wide lines with little value or very tight lines in hotly contested bouts. That said, let's get right to it!
Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili
Both guys are each other's kryptonite.
Moraes is on a slide and the prevailing wisdom says Dvalishvili’s style almost guarantees a decision win (or a late 2nd or 3rd rd finish if Moraes fades and gives up on himself.
Moraes’ superlative explosiveness is his best friend in this one, he needs to use that early and could easily catch the more active man early, on a telegraphed shot or for a hard counter as the level of activity leaves Merab open. But if he doesn't sell out early it's going to be a rough night.
Merab by decision +100 60%, 10% 3rd rd +1200, Moraes 1st rd 20% +800, 2nd rd 10% +1000
Dan Hooker vs Nasrat Haqsparat
While these guys could slowplay their fight, this should be an all out war. Someone won't last. Either Nasrat lands a clean cross and Chandler’s Hooker, or Hooker wears Nasrat down for a 2nd or 3rd rnd finish. Cover on a Hooker decision.
Hooker 2nd rd 30% +700, 3rd rd +100 20%, by dec 15% +210, Haqsparat ITD +325 35%
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler
This ain't going 5
Lawler in the first two or Nick in rds 2-4 (small % on 4 but the line is juicy)
Lawler rd 1 +375 30%, rd 2 +800 20%, Diaz rd 2 +1500 20%, rd 3 +1800 20%, rd 4 +2200 10%
That's all for tonight folks! I'd pick the main event for y'all as well, but I'm too Ortega biased and the MMA math tells us Volk by dec +120 is the best bet. I just cant abide that… And personally will be splitting my bets 40% on that line with 60% pulling for ny boy T City, but I just can't recommend that to tou all officially. For all you hardcore degens though…
Get your bets in, win big, and enjoy the 209 grind!
Merab stops it in the second!
Marlon holding on for dear life