Noche UFC: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Best Bets
Quick picks for a barren betting night in Sin City! ***New Format!*** Track our pick results & bet sizing recommendations!
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That said, here we go:
+110 Kevin Holland vs -130 JDM
Kevin's length can give any striker trouble. +235 ITD worth a flyer, I'm thinking Kevin should be a slight favorite in this matchup or no more than a pick'em -- 8 inches of reach, nasty jits, creativity and experience. Worth a bet. I do think this is a really tough fight for him and could go either way but I think the bookies are undervaluing Kevin here. Kid's a stud and JDM's style going to be a tough fit vs his if he can keep distance and avoid a brawl -- JDM more technical with better footwork and could crowd him up and keep him boxed in off the back foot. That could be a long day at the office for Kevin as I'd expect JDM to mix in some TD attempts or feints to really keep him off balance. Here's hoping Kevin catches him coming in early and knocks the shine off JDM's confidence, and makes it a Kevin Holland fight. Should be FOTN. Also, only touching two fights on this card, and keeping my exposure to half of last week -- not a great betting card. Too much volatility in the main event to recommend, though huge value potential there. I'd stay away however. UFC really cutting their costs to the bone on this card...
-310 Roman Kopylov vs +250 Josh Fremd
While this line is towards the high end of what I generally am willing to endorse as MMA risk and a punchers chance goes a long way in many matchups, however, I consider this -310 to be a very good line for Kopylov. Originally training for Fluffy, who's better everywhere than Fremd, I'd have a hard time picking that fight, and might give Fluffy the edge on durability likely to get touched up a bit due to the technical disadvantages in the stand up but having an advantage in the grappling and durability and likely to drop some big counters on Roman and put him into trouble at least.
Fremd on the other hand only has his athleticism and grappling to lean on here -- punchers chance is real as I've been less than impressed with Kopylov's guard and durability at times, though he has shown a great chin in some fights, however he leaves it out there to be touched. Fremd might be able to drop a fast overhand counter or straight down the pipe, the counter hook should be there too but I'm not sure Fremd can track Roman's angles and adjust to catch him on exit especially if he's getting jabbed, crossed, and kicked all night with Kopylov on his bike cutting angles and constantly feinting like he does so well.
Fremd will conserve energy in relation to Roman (even though he might be putting out a lot in explosive actions and takedown attempts) and will be dangerous down the line, especially for a guy in Kopylov that relies a lot on his movement and timing to avoid head shots -- if you want to degen a prop bet it's not a bad call to go 3rd Rd finish for Fremd at +2500 or even 2nd at +2000 -- in a meme year on short notice anything is possible and those are beautiful odds that are not often found on a proven finisher, and I expect we’ll continue to see lines of this size become increasingly rare as handicappers continue to gain data and experience. I wouldn't pick a method on this as KO is possible and club and sub more likely. That said, I truly see Roman walking the dog here, 3 rds of beautiful movement and kickboxing combined with timing and feints, and may find a finish beforehand. I'm evenly split on decision vs ITD.
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